Bitcoin (BTC) was showing record low volatility until earlier this week, giving altcoins plenty of leeway to draw some good technical setups.
At the same time, on-chain data and technical analysis began to suggest that BTC was on its way to bottoming out, and many analysts believed brighter days were ahead.
Fast forward to the present and it turns out that the volatility spike the market has been experiencing is actually a black swan event.
As you know, FTX is kaput.
Alameda Research is kaput.
BlockFi has also failed to “suspend client withdrawals as permitted by its terms of service” because it has suspended withdrawals due to the inability to “operate as normal”. suggests.
The contagion is spreading and the debris from this Krakatoa-level event is bound to ripple through the entire crypto ecosystem.
Right now, it’s hard to come up with a confident short-term investment theory for an asset just by looking at charts, and the best an unconvinced investor can do is stick with a proven plan or do whatever Nor will it.
The most likely short-term outcome is that volatility will remain high and cryptocurrency prices will continue to go up and down for some time.
While no one feels comfortable focusing on the potential negative consequences that lie ahead for the crypto sector and cryptocurrency prices, we do consider the absolute worst and plan for the worst. It is the responsibility of every investor.
That way, you won’t freak out when the shit really hits the fan.
Here are some things to watch out for over the next few days.
USDT/USD vs USDC/USD
During high volatility events, stablecoins can break their peg to the dollar. Any ambitious hype about Bitcoin being banned, hacked, or demise will push the stablecoin price below $1.00 as traders seek refuge in dollar-pegged assets. may exceed.
Tether (USDT) may lose its dollar peg during the Crypto Black Swan event. It’s happened a few times in the past, but it usually reverts to a 1:1 peg when the smoke clears.
According to TradingView and Coinbase data, USDT/USD broke below the dollar peg on Nov. 9, temporarily dropping to $0.97. USD Coin (USDC) surged in value to $1.01 while USDT fell below its peg.

We won’t investigate the unconfirmed reasons why there was a disagreement between the two, but unsubstantiated rumors related to Tether and Alameda Research are easy to find on Twitter.
The important thing to note here is that it doesn’t matter if the rumors about Alameda/Tether are completely false, as panic can easily be caused by false information, rumors, and lies.
If it goes viral on social media and surprises investors, they will act. Many people are planning or in the process of exchanging USDT for he USDC, BTC, or other stablecoins.
Similar behavior was seen during Terra and Celsius implosion. According to TradingView and KuCoin data, on May 12, the USDC price surged from $1.00 to $1.06-1.19. On the same day, the value of USDT briefly fell to $0.98 and $0.94.

Price fluctuations and spreads between exchanges can make stablecoin conversion costly and the experience of swapping from one to the other or from altcoins to stablecoins can be unpleasant.
The USDT and USDC dollar pegs are noteworthy.
bitcoin price prediction
The Nov. 8 plunge finally pushed BTC’s price out of a 146-day range that fluctuated between $24,500 and $18,600.

This is a significant range break and from a technical analysis point of view, the failure to recoup this range and the increased selling will slice the price through the volume profile gap and support in the $11,000 to $12,000 range. may be found.
It’s frustrating, but that’s the current reality.
If Bitcoin can regain and hold the $18,000 handle, at least the price will return to its previous range, which is a good sign.
A quick glance at the Ether (ETH) chart reflects a similar setup where ETH dropped out of the 148-day range between $2,000 and $1,250, but the price has already regained its previous range.

Bearish traders have set their downside targets in the $700s, but it will be interesting to see how the price recovers around $1,250.
Related: Genesis Trading Reveals $175 Million in Funds Locked in FTX
The market wants a stronger foundation
Many crypto-focused companies and investment groups have cited FTX and Alameda research. This also means that these same companies have some holes in their balance sheets.
companies exposed to #FTX
– Sequoia Capital – $213.5 million exposure
-Galaxy Digital – $77 million exposure
-Crypto.com – less than $10 million
-Amber Group – 10% Fund
-Kraken – Exposure to 9000 FTT
-Multicoin Capital – 10% Fund
-Selini Capital – 3% of funds— Being Satoshi (@BeingSatoshi) November 10, 2022
Some of these crypto-native companies also hold sizeable bags of various altcoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Many of these stashes of BTC, altcoins, and DeFi tokens could be market-sold on spot exchanges to bail out current losses, pay off loans, and meet client obligations.
Altcoins have already fallen significantly and some are relatively illiquid, so a surge in selling could put strong downward pressure on prices.
Before investing in what appears to be a once-in-a-lifetime dip and cycle bottom, investors should delve deeper into some of the token/project’s majority holders to see FTX’s multi-billion dollar value. You have to remember that there is Implosion has yet to be fully felt across the sector.
Now is the time to do your research and do your due diligence before making any cryptocurrency investment.
This newsletter is Humble Pope Substack He is also the author of Cointelegraph’s resident newsletter. Every Friday, Big Smokey writes market insights, trend how-tos, analysis, and early research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. All investment and trading movements involve risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
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