No one can blame Bitcoin (BTC) bulls for betting above $20,000 while $600 million weekly options expire on November 18. After all, this level has provided solid resistance since October 25th and has been held for almost two weeks.
However, the base scenario suddenly changed on Nov. 8 after withdrawals on the FTX exchange stopped due to the liquidity crisis. The move took the trader by surprise and in the space of 48 hours he was liquidated by over $290 million in leveraged buyers.

The market quickly adapted to this news, oscillating from $15,800 to $17,800 over the past seven days. At the moment, investors fear that contagion risk may force other major players to sell their crypto positions.
As FTX held large deposits from major players in the industry, the demise of FTX meant that other participants would face heavy losses as well. BlockFi, for example, held his $400 million line of credit against his FTX US. On Nov. 15, his SALT of the Collateralized Yield Platform revealed significant losses due to the collapse of FTX and subsequently suspended withdrawals.
A similar event occurred at Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Liquid, adding to the uncertainty across the market.
The November 18 option expiration is particularly important. Because a Bitcoin bear can keep his BTC below his $16,500 and he can secure a profit of $120 million.
Bulls bet over $20,000
The open interest for the weekly option expiration on Nov. 18 is $600 million, but the bulls were overly optimistic and the actual number is lower. These traders failed to meet their targets, making bearish bets above $18,000, and BTC was sold following FTX’s bankruptcy.

A call-to-put ratio of 1.00 represents the perfect balance between $300 million put (sell) open interest and $300 million call (buy) options. Nonetheless, with Bitcoin near $16,500, most bullish bets are worthless.
Only 10% of these call (buy) options will be available if the Bitcoin price falls below $17,500 on October 21st at 8am UTC. This difference occurs because the right to buy Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades below the expiry price.
Bulls need a pump above $18,000 to gain the upper hand
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of Bitcoin options contracts available for call (bullish) and put (bearish) products on November 18 depends on the expiry price. An imbalance in favor of both sides constitutes a theoretical gain.
- Between $15,500 and $16,500: 400 calls and 7,900 puts. The net result favors put (bearish) stocks by $120 million.
- Between $16,500 and $17,500: 1,700 calls versus 6,100 puts. The net result favors put (bearish) stocks by $75 million.
- $17,500 – $18,000: 2,500 calls versus 5,000 puts. The net result favors put (bearish) stocks by $45 million.
- Between $18,000 and $18,500: 4,500 calls versus 3,100 puts. The final result gives the call (bullish) stock a $25 million advantage.
This rough estimate takes into account put options used in bearish bets and call options used in neutral to bullish trades only. Yet this oversimplification ignores more complex investment strategies.
For example, a trader can sell a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a certain price, but unfortunately there is no easy way to estimate this effect.
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BTC Price Falling Below $16,000 Is Not Surprising
Bitcoin bears need to push the price below $16,500 to secure a profit of $120 million. In the bull’s best-case scenario, he would need to be 10% above $18,000 to turn the tables and he would make a profit of $25 million.
Given that bitcoin’s margin and options products are unlikely to recover the $18,500 support, Friday’s expiry is most likely to be favorable. Bulls may be better off abandoning it and focusing on the Nov. 25 expiration of monthly options.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. All investment and trading movements involve risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
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